La Liga · resolved market
Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-01-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe9a46c287bfe45712ff0c7c269786321a3decbaf1c80aa35a73486931257892
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked No | 50c | 10,000$4,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,050 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 47c | 9,760$4,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,579.9 | 4,753 | 47.1%2,238 W · 2,515 L | -21.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 51c | 3,000$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,459.77 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 51c | 946.36$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.64 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 6c | 666.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 104 | 31.7%33 W · 71 L | +8.7wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | -11.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72e2…1d2abacked Yes | 6c | 381.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 50c | 375.11$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.56 | 3,461 | 43%1,489 W · 1,972 L | +31.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…81c3backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 34c | 313.69$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.81 | 2,347 | 48.5%1,138 W · 1,209 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 52c | 250$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.17 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 52c | 154.72$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 262 | 41.2%108 W · 154 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Yes | 26c | 110.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…b4f1backed No | 49c | 102.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 640 | 46.9%300 W · 340 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 50c | 62.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 746 | 57.4%428 W · 318 L | +22.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed No | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…11ecbacked No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefe6…7c8fbacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +140.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb7…4b6bbacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Yes | 51c | 30.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 307 | 49.2%151 W · 156 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed No | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 216 | 48.6%105 W · 111 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-01-11?this page
- Will Málaga CF vs. AD Ceuta FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Málaga CF win on 2026-01-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.