Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Perú Rejects vs Heroic (BO5) - ESL One Birmingham: South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe9cd4deacaa6e515b3fdf16e65a9ce7ac4f9b2502e154abe9cd571f6244a01a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Perú Rejectsof Perú Rejects, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb76f…8536backed Perú Rejects | 55c | 2,762$1,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,237.89 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Perú Rejects | 54c | 1,267$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.43 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Heroic | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 377 | 45.4%171 W · 206 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Perú Rejects | 61c | 876.88$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.68 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…1160backed Heroic | 44c | 790$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.6 | 148 | 54.7%81 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Heroic | 47c | 637.06$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df0…96a6backed Heroic | 46c | 523.79$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.56 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Heroic | 27c | 488.72$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.72 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Heroic | 44c | 487.09$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.08 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb787…ad0abacked Heroic | 46c | 437.44$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Perú Rejects | 58c | 394$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.42 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…06d5backed Perú Rejects | 72c | 355.5$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…7d07backed Heroic | 48c | 350$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 254 | 44.5%113 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…e862backed Heroic | 6c | 346.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Heroic | 42c | 327.6$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.82 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd15e…db59backed Heroic | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9b…eb8dbacked Heroic | 30c | 300.65$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc64…d596backed Heroic | 41c | 269.24$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20b2…f114backed Heroic | 38c | 266.58$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.73 | 151 | 31.8%48 W · 103 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Heroic | 34c | 262.86$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Perú Rejects | 64c | 257.46$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.63 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed Heroic | 12c | 256.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Heroic | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 136 | 57.4%78 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Heroic | 43c | 180$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.95 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Heroic | 7c | 172.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…0e36backed Perú Rejects | 65c | 154.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.04 | 129 | 65.1%84 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…5556backed Perú Rejects | 53c | 150$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab9…5b82backed Heroic | 34c | 140.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7abc…9ff7backed Heroic | 52c | 135.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -5.5wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcd35…ecebbacked Heroic | 35c | 116.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Heroic | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 436 | 47.5%207 W · 229 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…91ecbacked Perú Rejects | 54c | 109.26$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.26 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7518…a533backed Heroic | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed Perú Rejects | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc85d…6832backed Perú Rejects | 51c | 90$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed Perú Rejects | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…193cbacked Perú Rejects | 61c | 62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Heroic | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 176 | 38.6%68 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked Perú Rejects | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Perú Rejects | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 228 | 45.6%104 W · 124 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…898bbacked Perú Rejects | 65c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6097…66b2backed Perú Rejects | 66c | 29.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…9055backed Perú Rejects | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 76cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x597d…5286backed Perú Rejects | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…04d0backed Perú Rejects | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d8…c015backed Heroic | 47c | 23.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…aaf2backed Perú Rejects | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Perú Rejects vs Heroic (BO5) - ESL One Birmingham: South America Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Perú Rejects vs Heroic - Game 1 WinnerPerú Rejects won
- Dota 2: Perú Rejects vs Heroic - Game 2 WinnerPerú Rejects won
- Dota 2: Perú Rejects vs Heroic - Game 3 WinnerPerú Rejects won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.