Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Perú Rejects vs Heroic - Game 3 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95ba66f7ff175becc8ee69520ebbebd535f7f8012a99161c1c15ac8c0034d6b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Perú Rejectsof Perú Rejects, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Heroic | 47c | 672.49$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.3 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…0ec8backed Heroic | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…0c1bbacked Perú Rejects | 50c | 340$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c7…a27ebacked Perú Rejects | 52c | 282.69$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed Perú Rejects | 50c | 280$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Perú Rejects | 56c | 267.3$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.1 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…e862backed Heroic | 13c | 249$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…0e36backed Perú Rejects | 59c | 170.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.03 | 129 | 65.1%84 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62c3…229cbacked Perú Rejects | 69c | 155.43$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.92 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 61cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Heroic | 37c | 149.34$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.63 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7abc…9ff7backed Heroic | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -5.5wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed Perú Rejects | 77c | 130.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Heroic | 39c | 122.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Heroic | 38c | 108.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Perú Rejects | 62c | 102.63$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5224…e2a0backed Perú Rejects | 70c | 100.06$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c6…4a55backed Perú Rejects | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b39…eafbbacked Heroic | 44c | 74.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Heroic | 22c | 66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…9725backed Perú Rejects | 22c | 65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.83 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…078abacked Perú Rejects | 67c | 52.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc85d…6832backed Perú Rejects | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Perú Rejects | 52c | 47.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed Perú Rejects | 62c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…aaf2backed Perú Rejects | 48c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe36b…c180backed Heroic | 54c | 23.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Heroic | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4485…912cbacked Perú Rejects | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Perú Rejects vs Heroic - Game 3 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Perú Rejects vs Heroic (BO5) - ESL One Birmingham: South America Closed Qualifier PlayoffsPerú Rejects won
- Dota 2: Perú Rejects vs Heroic - Game 1 WinnerPerú Rejects won
- Dota 2: Perú Rejects vs Heroic - Game 2 WinnerPerú Rejects won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.