Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - DreamLeague China Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbea42ec6a24f00d8f9fa1c8166f66808bd7f7e454cdba8a58a42f2633690c5c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cloud Dawningof Yakult Brothers, Cloud Dawning
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,297
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,297 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Cloud Dawning | 38c | 1,083$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.21 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Cloud Dawning | 33c | 802.38$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.2 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Yakult Brothers | 57c | 672.81$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.64 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…387ebacked Cloud Dawning | 33c | 567.26$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.66 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…5feabacked Yakult Brothers | 67c | 499.45$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.13 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Yakult Brothers | 68c | 390.79$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.06 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yakult Brothers | 67c | 350$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.2 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Cloud Dawning | 4c | 344.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.47 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Cloud Dawning | 43c | 299.49$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.59 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3a…e03dbacked Cloud Dawning | 3c | 294.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.43 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Yakult Brothers | 67c | 250$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Yakult Brothers | 57c | 227.35$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.66 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Cloud Dawning | 45c | 213.43$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.78 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4898…a723backed Yakult Brothers | 55c | 199.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.19 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed Cloud Dawning | 33c | 151.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.58 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x006a…14edbacked Yakult Brothers | 69c | 142.23$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.14 | 119 | 60.5%72 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Cloud Dawning | 42c | 96.59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.02 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Yakult Brothers | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Yakult Brothers | 57c | 74.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Yakult Brothers | 25c | 73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cloud Dawning | 37c | 63.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Yakult Brothers | 68c | 59.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d7…55c2backed Yakult Brothers | 69c | 16.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - DreamLeague China Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Cloud Dawning - Game 1 WinnerCloud Dawning won
- Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Cloud Dawning - Game 2 WinnerCloud Dawning won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.