Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of March 2 above $400?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbed4398a5bb22392b6f6aad59f0e53f8cc54d2a4221ad1df3d8121a8cbbaae88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,045 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 42c | 1,213$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.15 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 71c | 984.55$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.82 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 43c | 600$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 12c | 344.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 24c | 231.19$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed No | 10c | 157.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 157.04$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.04 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad8…6be0backed No | 56c | 91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 25c | 75.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x962a…aa6cbacked Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed No | 42c | 34.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 46c | 26.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of March 2 above $400?this page
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of March 2 above $370?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of March 2 above $380?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of March 2 above $390?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of March 2 above $410?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of March 2 above $420?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.