Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Metz vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbefa95bb8bc8c13278cf4cd2ac45e45b538f2049039395d39226696a514bee9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 24c | 4,166$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.93 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 76c | 3,962$3,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.82 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…cf8abacked No | 75c | 3,321$2,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.21 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 2,259$1,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.4 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 24c | 1,385$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.47 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 24c | 1,243$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.32 | 240 | 44.2%106 W · 134 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 74c | 441.75$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.86 | 299 | 49.8%149 W · 150 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 26c | 404$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 76c | 400$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 9c | 257.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 76c | 209.54$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 25c | 179$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 170 | 43.5%74 W · 96 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 12c | 175$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…a5cebacked Yes | 24c | 145.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 75c | 120.95$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 76c | 117$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 260 | 46.2%120 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacba…9256backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Yes | 25c | 89.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 204 | 54.4%111 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…42e7backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed No | 76c | 41.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -48%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 76c | 35.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 142 | 47.9%68 W · 74 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed No | 77c | 32.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 76c | 31.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed No | 76c | 28.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed No | 76c | 27.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…1425backed No | 76c | 24.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf1…6adcbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed No | 76c | 18.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa15…95e3backed No | 77c | 13.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Metz vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Metz win on 2026-01-25?No won
- Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-01-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.