Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf09c82fd6a82f64c785b5a7143621cc6b3f9131bcf2766e5f7c0c4634f4f64e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rune Eatersof Yellow Submarine, Rune Eaters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,749 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Rune Eaters | 52c | 600$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7756…d00abacked Yellow Submarine | 40c | 399.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 251 | 47.4%119 W · 132 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Rune Eaters | 57c | 366.89$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.46 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7576…3ff4backed Rune Eaters | 59c | 340.29$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.29 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Yellow Submarine | 48c | 254.19$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.05 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Rune Eaters | 60c | 163.51$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.41 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Yellow Submarine | 47c | 142.93$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.44 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Yellow Submarine | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7627…4404backed Rune Eaters | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Yellow Submarine | 79c | 95.24$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0222…2677backed Rune Eaters | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked Rune Eaters | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 201 | 51.2%103 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd3…c69dbacked Yellow Submarine | 41c | 41.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Rune Eaters | 35c | 39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yellow Submarine | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…4f46backed Yellow Submarine | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group AYellow Submarine won
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 WinnerYellow Submarine won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.