Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87007b9694125a5c48d8f03c9f131f47e6611d012435af338edd754268e9b52e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yellow Submarineof Yellow Submarine, Rune Eaters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,644 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Yellow Submarine | 48c | 2,298$1,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.89 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc9…e444backed Rune Eaters | 4c | 1,800$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Rune Eaters | 51c | 1,000$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Rune Eaters | 54c | 535.3$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.13 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed Rune Eaters | 52c | 445.7$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.76 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Yellow Submarine | 45c | 371$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.6 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…2fe4backed Rune Eaters | 34c | 295.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.57 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Yellow Submarine | 48c | 230.28$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.76 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Rune Eaters | 30c | 213.33$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7756…d00abacked Yellow Submarine | 51c | 204.08$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 251 | 47.4%119 W · 132 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab05…52e9backed Rune Eaters | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 174 | 48.9%85 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Yellow Submarine | 70c | 199.61$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.26 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed Yellow Submarine | 48c | 76.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 208 | 58.7%122 W · 86 L | +22.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebf8…7d2bbacked Rune Eaters | 45c | 71.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked Rune Eaters | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 201 | 51.2%103 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…263cbacked Rune Eaters | 53c | 63.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 241 | 37.3%90 W · 151 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbd…7d99backed Rune Eaters | 31c | 55.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…dbd7backed Rune Eaters | 44c | 54.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 400 | 47.5%190 W · 210 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Yellow Submarine | 67c | 26.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b70…ab35backed Yellow Submarine | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd3…c69dbacked Rune Eaters | 69c | 18.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yellow Submarine | 65c | 15.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf6…206ebacked Yellow Submarine | 76c | 13.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group AYellow Submarine won
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 WinnerRune Eaters won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.