Tennis · resolved market
Oeiras 4: Polina Kudermetova vs Celine Naef
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf12abb672e42a7d9f2e5ac5437da36fcb199b5ca1d7575cd2a45555f8cfac48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Polina Kudermetovaof Polina Kudermetova, Celine Naef
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Polina Kudermetova | 47c | 5,183$2,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,762.9 | 798 | 55.9%446 W · 352 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Celine Naef | 51c | 2,943$1,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,511.69 | 11,325 | 43.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L | +18.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed Celine Naef | 28c | 2,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 587 | 34.6%203 W · 384 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Celine Naef | 53c | 991.23$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.14 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Polina Kudermetova | 69c | 817.59$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.12 | 6,596 | 50.7%3,341 W · 3,255 L | +259.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Celine Naef | 49c | 674.53$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.14 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Celine Naef | 31c | 492.45$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.86 | 2,754 | 53.8%1,481 W · 1,273 L | +71.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Celine Naef | 23c | 480.97$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.07 | 380 | 13.9%53 W · 327 L | -38.3wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Celine Naef | 28c | 476.59$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.21 | 469 | 32%150 W · 319 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Celine Naef | 33c | 400$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.59 | 9,231 | 44.3%4,088 W · 5,143 L | -241.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Celine Naef | 5c | 382.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 8,726 | 36.2%3,161 W · 5,565 L | -187.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Polina Kudermetova | 76c | 323.34$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.46 | 1,444 | 38%548 W · 896 L | -46.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Polina Kudermetova | 71c | 306.92$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.01 | 1,920 | 55.4%1,064 W · 856 L | -44.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…5e56backed Polina Kudermetova | 50c | 270.59$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.67 | 1,667 | 52.8%881 W · 786 L | +43.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Celine Naef | 27c | 246.36$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.46 | 4,466 | 67.7%3,023 W · 1,443 L | +299.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Polina Kudermetova | 71c | 203.76$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.1 | 4,647 | 49.3%2,291 W · 2,356 L | +159.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…5c13backed Polina Kudermetova | 53c | 184.21$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.97 | 325 | 36.9%120 W · 205 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Celine Naef | 37c | 183.82$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.34 | 1,266 | 34.2%433 W · 833 L | -43.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Polina Kudermetova | 70c | 140.35$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 711 | 65.1%463 W · 248 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Celine Naef | 30c | 140.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac83…239cbacked Celine Naef | 30c | 137.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Polina Kudermetova | 70c | 133.42$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 5,288 | 56.5%2,989 W · 2,299 L | +231.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a8…cbeabacked Polina Kudermetova | 69c | 105.48$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Celine Naef | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa41…2239backed Celine Naef | 33c | 83.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked Polina Kudermetova | 67c | 74.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 891 | 64.3%573 W · 318 L | +11.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Polina Kudermetova | 69c | 74.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 6,740 | 48.8%3,288 W · 3,452 L | +58.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Celine Naef | 19c | 72.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 799 | 51.1%408 W · 391 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccbd…f1b7backed Celine Naef | 30c | 67.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ace…b219backed Celine Naef | 37c | 65.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4740…fa66backed Celine Naef | 31c | 61.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Celine Naef | 27c | 53.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Celine Naef | 24c | 53.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | -74.2wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Celine Naef | 29c | 49.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 780 | 52.7%411 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Celine Naef | 30c | 48.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Celine Naef | 54c | 45.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 950 | 50.1%476 W · 474 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Polina Kudermetova | 69c | 42.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6a…9888backed Polina Kudermetova | 67c | 39.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1,219 | 55%670 W · 549 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Polina Kudermetova | 65c | 38.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 965 | 41.5%400 W · 565 L | +14.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Polina Kudermetova | 69c | 32.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 370 | 58.6%217 W · 153 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked Polina Kudermetova | 77c | 31.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 284 | 54.9%156 W · 128 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…45b2backed Polina Kudermetova | 71c | 31.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 437 | 50.3%220 W · 217 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…c8ccbacked Polina Kudermetova | 72c | 24.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 349 | 57.6%201 W · 148 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Polina Kudermetova | 68c | 22.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd77…ef21backed Polina Kudermetova | 60c | 20.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 652 | 64.1%418 W · 234 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…b4b4backed Polina Kudermetova | 64c | 15.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe36…9413backed Polina Kudermetova | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 313 | 58.5%183 W · 130 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.