Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Virtanen (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf4e7b661228a31601047115efc535ca5b2533195f1f0d25b5c6f99ceeb4797e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcarazof Alcaraz, Virtanen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45e4…7e20backed Virtanen | 19c | 3,938$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.32 | 187 | 47.6%89 W · 98 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5054…0aafbacked Virtanen | 19c | 2,183$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.77 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa02b…70d6backed Alcaraz | 50c | 1,649$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.39 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +34.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Virtanen | 15c | 1,275$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.48 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Virtanen | 14c | 1,096$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.46 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc2…4c80backed Alcaraz | 79c | 999.82$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.89 | 464 | 73.3%340 W · 124 L | +27.0wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Alcaraz | 80c | 875.28$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.87 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Virtanen | 15c | 421.53$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5839…2c33backed Alcaraz | 74c | 399.08$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.76 | 125 | 54.4%68 W · 57 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Virtanen | 16c | 179.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 196 | 53.1%104 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70d8…a237backed Virtanen | 19c | 170.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Virtanen | 18c | 110.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Alcaraz | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 246 | 32.9%81 W · 165 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Alcaraz | 78c | 98.78$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x449f…f386backed Virtanen | 33c | 97.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Virtanen | 20c | 87.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed Virtanen | 14c | 77.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 203 | 31%63 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Virtanen | 26c | 71.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ad…4c1fbacked Alcaraz | 78c | 67.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4a…d477backed Alcaraz | 74c | 66.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Alcaraz | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 290 | 39.3%114 W · 176 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Alcaraz | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 452 | 35.8%162 W · 290 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Alcaraz | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 482 | 35.9%173 W · 309 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Alcaraz | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 694 | 38%264 W · 430 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Alcaraz | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 257 | 37%95 W · 162 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Alcaraz | 75c | 32.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…9b16backed Alcaraz | 79c | 16.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Virtanen (+1.5)this page
- Alcaraz vs. Virtanen: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Virtanen: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Virtanen: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Barcelona Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Otto VirtanenCarlos Alcaraz won
- Carlos Alcaraz vs. Otto Virtanen: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs VirtanenAlcaraz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.