Tennis · resolved market

Barcelona Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Otto Virtanen

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb02d5f426a61d43c0daa6651f4611ab5c3eb4b7b2c3ef9a5cf7e211e9ef90793

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Carlos Alcarazof Carlos Alcaraz, Otto Virtanen
Resolved: Apr 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $741,445
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $700,561

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $741,445 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3b5c…126ebacked Otto Virtanen	5c	134,393$6,160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,160.46	809	38.8%314 W · 495 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Otto Virtanen	5c	50,361$2,472 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,472.08	8,828	36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L	-193.3wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Otto Virtanen	2c	42,903$1,065 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,065.35	1,658	49.9%828 W · 830 L	+7.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x5123…2f31backed Otto Virtanen	3c	37,563$1,017 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,016.65	183	15.8%29 W · 154 L	+4.6wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Otto Virtanen	3c	32,611$927 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$927.22	1,090	35.9%391 W · 699 L	+16.2wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x27b0…fc67backed Otto Virtanen	3c	24,998$830 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$829.94	312	34.6%108 W · 204 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Otto Virtanen	3c	24,554$648 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$647.61	1,435	24.3%348 W · 1,087 L	-36.2wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8101…e7bebacked Otto Virtanen	3c	23,364$680 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$680.15	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c54…09c4backed Otto Virtanen	5c	17,760$888 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$887.98	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Otto Virtanen	6c	13,648$782 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$781.81	237	31.6%75 W · 162 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Otto Virtanen	3c	13,130$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$354.51	1,193	48.9%583 W · 610 L	+9.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c7a…7625backed Otto Virtanen	4c	11,618$471 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$471.22	260	45.4%118 W · 142 L	-12.3wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaab0…6364backed Otto Virtanen	1c	10,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	22cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae71…8488backed Otto Virtanen	7c	8,383$581 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$580.64	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-3.5wins	-0.22per pick	41cpaid	-69.3%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Otto Virtanen	7c	7,597$560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$560.1	930	55.8%519 W · 411 L	+23.8wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x48b8…4b69backed Otto Virtanen	3c	7,143$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	82	39%32 W · 50 L	-5.0wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked Otto Virtanen	3c	6,770$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.82	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-2.5wins	-0.27per pick	38cpaid	-76.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc0c…218abacked Otto Virtanen	7c	5,823$399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.4	541	38.1%206 W · 335 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f35…95dabacked Otto Virtanen	6c	5,000$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277	453	43.9%199 W · 254 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4699…5051backed Otto Virtanen	6c	3,582$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.94	973	7.9%77 W · 896 L	-20.2wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x555c…319ebacked Otto Virtanen	4c	3,136$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.3	99	31.3%31 W · 68 L	-9.6wins	-0.10per pick	41cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Otto Virtanen	4c	2,627$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.5	395	34.4%136 W · 259 L	-10.9wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Otto Virtanen	5c	2,608$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.57	721	32%231 W · 490 L	-17.8wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Otto Virtanen	7c	2,584$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.4	159	48.4%77 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea87…1ad7backed Otto Virtanen	7c	2,551$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.91	270	40%108 W · 162 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Otto Virtanen	4c	2,419$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.23	1,107	43.5%481 W · 626 L	-3.9wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed Otto Virtanen	8c	2,307$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.49	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf710…edc9backed Otto Virtanen	3c	1,794$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.63	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f70…2872backed Otto Virtanen	2c	1,618$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.42	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Otto Virtanen	4c	1,598$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.53	4,703	49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L	+166.5wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe333…b1e4backed Otto Virtanen	3c	1,492$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.79	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.09per pick	5cpaid	+224.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcab1…65babacked Otto Virtanen	3c	1,458$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.82	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Otto Virtanen	3c	1,442$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.54	7,724	47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L	+41.2wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Otto Virtanen	4c	1,413$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.09	3,871	35%1,353 W · 2,518 L	+92.5wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4232…d505backed Otto Virtanen	16c	1,349$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.86	372	35.2%131 W · 241 L	-12.8wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x50a5…3aebbacked Otto Virtanen	11c	1,323$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.52	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.16per pick	28cpaid	-71%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5d4…8b32backed Otto Virtanen	1c	1,274$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.7	1,206	8%96 W · 1,110 L	+17.2wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+80.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Otto Virtanen	4c	1,212$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.33	278	36.7%102 W · 176 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4748…9666backed Otto Virtanen	4c	1,147$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.36	484	40.3%195 W · 289 L	-4.3wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Otto Virtanen	3c	1,052$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.55	977	45.2%442 W · 535 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee4c…8572backed Otto Virtanen	3c	1,015$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.25	234	29.1%68 W · 166 L	-6.8wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Otto Virtanen	7c	1,009$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.29	5,350	56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L	+228.4wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x449f…f386backed Otto Virtanen	6c	963.79$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.35	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	-3.6wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d76…9168backed Otto Virtanen	12c	922.22$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.36	375	40.8%153 W · 222 L	-5.5wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2294…4cd3backed Otto Virtanen	3c	753.25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.58	147	44.2%65 W · 82 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Otto Virtanen	4c	704.45$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.7	423	44.2%187 W · 236 L	-7.6wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eaf…507bbacked Otto Virtanen	14c	697.21$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.82	181	33.1%60 W · 121 L	-14.8wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x08c7…7203backed Otto Virtanen	4c	651.36$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.52	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58f4…764ebacked Otto Virtanen	15c	632.26$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.9	287	26.8%77 W · 210 L	-14.4wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Otto Virtanen	8c	524.36$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.95	567	44.6%253 W · 314 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a87…3b66backed Otto Virtanen	3c	500.59$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.52	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2dc0…e57dbacked Otto Virtanen	3c	489.04$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.07	56	19.6%11 W · 45 L	-6.8wins	-0.12per pick	32cpaid	-54%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Otto Virtanen	7c	488.63$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.92	6,786	48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L	+56.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc8b…f894backed Otto Virtanen	3c	474.4$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.13	87	24.1%21 W · 66 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2be…bb58backed Otto Virtanen	4c	471.95$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.85	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Otto Virtanen	6c	471.8$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.31	586	39.6%232 W · 354 L	-21.9wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7663…c9aabacked Otto Virtanen	6c	471.8$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.31	62	50%31 W · 31 L	+4.2wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Otto Virtanen	7c	449.99$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	292	30.5%89 W · 203 L	-11.9wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb888…56d1backed Otto Virtanen	4c	447.39$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.85	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-3.1wins	-0.14per pick	37cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x06f9…3978backed Otto Virtanen	7c	444.3$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.54	32	37.5%12 W · 20 L	+2.0wins	+0.06per pick	31cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f05…d802backed Otto Virtanen	14c	428.37$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.39	63	33.3%21 W · 42 L	-3.5wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xacf9…626dbacked Otto Virtanen	7c	375.22$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.08	279	36.2%101 W · 178 L	-7.8wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2db8…e042backed Otto Virtanen	6c	362.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.32	749	61.8%463 W · 286 L	-5.3wins	-0.01per pick	63cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Otto Virtanen	4c	353.45$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.03	93	4.3%4 W · 89 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-21%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x38fa…87b5backed Otto Virtanen	7c	333.53$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.01	188	29.8%56 W · 132 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Otto Virtanen	5c	325.69$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	4,934	41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L	-77.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03a6…1198backed Otto Virtanen	5c	299.69$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.09	77	36.4%28 W · 49 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b14…eb88backed Otto Virtanen	4c	251.28$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Otto Virtanen	12c	250$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4,288	40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L	-139.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Otto Virtanen	10c	250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	194	11.9%23 W · 171 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Otto Virtanen	9c	243.51$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.83	1,132	50.3%569 W · 563 L	+7.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44b6…ac34backed Otto Virtanen	6c	207.09$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.8	103	53.4%55 W · 48 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb17e…22bebacked Otto Virtanen	5c	199.96$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	59	18.6%11 W · 48 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Otto Virtanen	13c	181.99$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.91	1,444	38%548 W · 896 L	-46.0wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed Otto Virtanen	13c	143.39$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.92	579	39.7%230 W · 349 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Otto Virtanen	14c	116.29$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.51	659	52.5%346 W · 313 L	+27.0wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb94…7bc0backed Otto Virtanen	12c	112.41$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.49	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4db0…7ff6backed Otto Virtanen	14c	104.06$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.22	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Otto Virtanen	11c	99.98$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1,240	41.2%511 W · 729 L	-2.2wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Barcelona Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Otto Virtanenthis page
Alcaraz vs. Virtanen: Match O/U 21.5Under won
Alcaraz vs. Virtanen: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
Alcaraz vs. Virtanen: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Otto Virtanen: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs VirtanenAlcaraz won
Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Virtanen (+1.5)Alcaraz won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Barcelona Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Otto Virtanen

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event