Mls · resolved market
Will New York City FC win on 2025-11-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfa68acdce10b3c58bcb48ecea7be03f5104805af853fa64c3b24dc03ab30b5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 8c | 3,134$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.58 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 17c | 3,050$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.5 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 15c | 1,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 17c | 1,107$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.04 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2784…c374backed Yes | 17c | 1,060$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Yes | 15c | 825.49$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.57 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 6c | 653$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62f…ced5backed Yes | 6c | 574.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 10c | 540.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 16c | 530.24$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.84 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a99…cedcbacked Yes | 17c | 490$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…a979backed Yes | 16c | 423$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 4c | 256.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 16c | 165.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec8a…0bf1backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…a4f1backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68f…3211backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…6bbabacked Yes | 17c | 59.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New York City FC win on 2025-11-29?this page
- Will Inter Miami CF vs. New York City FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-11-29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.