Europa Conference League · resolved market
FK Liepāja vs. FK Dečić Tuzi: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc015a39866a832a33e48bd4c851610bed2973cdd3ff40e977d8da3c810ae74f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 1,685$1,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.47 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 29c | 999.97$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 34c | 889.58$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.23 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed Over | 27c | 400.37$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 63c | 390$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.3 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 14c | 223.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 57c | 202.22$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.02 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 44c | 164.01$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…4b22backed Under | 57c | 119.98$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 58c | 96.64$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Over | 37c | 91.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 122 | 42.6%52 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 43c | 73.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 74c | 53.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 44c | 43.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed Under | 69c | 43.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 77c | 37.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 43c | 27.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 266 | 47.4%126 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FK Liepāja vs. FK Dečić Tuzi: O/U 2.5this page
- FK Liepāja vs. FK Dečić Tuzi: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- FK Liepāja vs. FK Dečić Tuzi: FK Liepāja O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Liepāja vs. FK Dečić Tuzi: FK Liepāja O/U 1.5Under won
- FK Liepāja vs. FK Dečić Tuzi: O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Liepāja vs. FK Dečić Tuzi: O/U 1.5Under won
- FK Liepāja vs. FK Dečić Tuzi: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: FK Dečić Tuzi (-1.5)FK Liepāja won
- Spread: FK Liepāja (-1.5)FK Dečić Tuzi won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.