Tennis · resolved market
Kingston: Aidan Mayo vs Timo Legout
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc06c9616356b8afdfe343053d721f41aaee788f852cc73be4fbf74e91e8a5ce1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timo Legoutof Aidan Mayo, Timo Legout
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Aidan Mayo | 17c | 886.6$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.43 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Aidan Mayo | 16c | 779.46$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.41 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Timo Legout | 58c | 645.46$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.3 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Aidan Mayo | 50c | 218.48$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.24 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Timo Legout | 79c | 216$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Timo Legout | 50c | 190.32$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.29 | 255 | 42%107 W · 148 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…da75backed Aidan Mayo | 50c | 190$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 351 | 64.7%227 W · 124 L | +20.8wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…b694backed Aidan Mayo | 16c | 130.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 1,429 | 44.2%631 W · 798 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Aidan Mayo | 19c | 115.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…2286backed Aidan Mayo | 25c | 101.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Aidan Mayo | 20c | 95.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…f890backed Aidan Mayo | 17c | 83.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Timo Legout | 49c | 79.59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 1,865 | 44.7%834 W · 1,031 L | +36.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Aidan Mayo | 31c | 77.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 519 | 42.6%221 W · 298 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571f…1d37backed Aidan Mayo | 41c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 1,065 | 54.7%583 W · 482 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Timo Legout | 49c | 59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 423 | 50.8%215 W · 208 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Timo Legout | 46c | 55.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Aidan Mayo | 53c | 50.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66ba…2e5bbacked Aidan Mayo | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x734e…edbdbacked Timo Legout | 50c | 48.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -8.1wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Timo Legout | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…331cbacked Timo Legout | 63c | 38.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 348 | 64.1%223 W · 125 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe77…8fe4backed Aidan Mayo | 54c | 31.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 95 | 31.6%30 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Aidan Mayo | 51c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…6901backed Timo Legout | 50c | 30.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5b…1ddfbacked Aidan Mayo | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 104 | 37.5%39 W · 65 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed Timo Legout | 49c | 27.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 281 | 64.4%181 W · 100 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052a…a128backed Aidan Mayo | 54c | 26.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767e…98cabacked Aidan Mayo | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 408 | 61.3%250 W · 158 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Timo Legout | 50c | 21.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Aidan Mayo | 51c | 20.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 690 | 47%324 W · 366 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca1…4268backed Aidan Mayo | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 155 | 31.6%49 W · 106 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Aidan Mayo | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…0724backed Timo Legout | 58c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 702 | 54.4%382 W · 320 L | +40.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.