NHL · resolved market
Spread: Rangers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc079d8d6fb18196eafd4da38664f45da3f10fac0878a04342020bee5a2415efc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flyersof Rangers, Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Rangers | 35c | 384$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.63 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Flyers | 65c | 338$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.3 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Rangers | 36c | 268.72$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.74 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Flyers | 64c | 150.95$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…0583backed Flyers | 67c | 148.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Flyers | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Rangers | 34c | 147.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Rangers | 35c | 138.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Rangers | 32c | 135.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Flyers | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Flyers | 66c | 121.1$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Rangers | 32c | 115.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Flyers | 65c | 109.34$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Flyers | 65c | 105$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Rangers | 33c | 77.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b16…1290backed Rangers | 33c | 75.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 139 | 52.5%73 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Flyers | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Flyers | 67c | 70.91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Rangers | 34c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Flyers | 68c | 60.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Flyers | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 305 | 49.2%150 W · 155 L | -14.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Rangers | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Rangers | 42c | 26.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Rangers | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Flyers | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rangers (-1.5)this page
- Flyers vs. RangersFlyers won
- Flyers vs. Rangers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.