Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0d27b95ff1e934d53b010642c6520325f8b30f2e5eeae939eda44f6ac00125a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 1,516$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.49 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 77c | 454.23$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.49 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 25c | 325.43$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.3 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 24c | 229.11$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 10c | 208.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 1,569 | 16.3%255 W · 1,314 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 13c | 183.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 62c | 182.91$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.61 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 26c | 165.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 27c | 162.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 32c | 161.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 795 | 27.9%222 W · 573 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 11c | 152.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 111 | 15.3%17 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked Yes | 15c | 151.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…b5b2backed Yes | 34c | 146.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 17c | 136.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked Yes | 27c | 135.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 134 | 35.1%47 W · 87 L | -21.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 75c | 133.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…f0a1backed Yes | 9c | 126.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 67c | 125.29$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff83…a97dbacked Yes | 20c | 117.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 110.53$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 80c | 110.28$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 331 | 54.7%181 W · 150 L | +34.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 74c | 85$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 81.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…4b96backed Yes | 30c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 20c | 66.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f0…1731backed No | 76c | 63.18$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 35c | 55.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 35c | 54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | +32.0wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…adafbacked Yes | 42c | 53.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 73c | 47.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 34c | 44.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 38c | 34.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1,268 | 58.4%740 W · 528 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 69c | 25.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 58c | 25.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 66c | 24.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 64c | 21.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 58c | 20.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 346 | 67.6%234 W · 112 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 71°F or below on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.