Tennis · resolved market
Kigali: Max Houkes vs Ryan Nijboer
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0d4d8765aefee1dbca0ce18d0e84a38bcb15341153a03421178532225197f6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ryan Nijboerof Max Houkes, Ryan Nijboer
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Max Houkes | 7c | 4,335$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.57 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac86…b3b3backed Max Houkes | 34c | 3,257$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,107.36 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Max Houkes | 22c | 1,148$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.35 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Ryan Nijboer | 56c | 1,139$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.08 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…20aebacked Max Houkes | 59c | 1,011$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 524 | 60.9%319 W · 205 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Max Houkes | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1,106 | 50.3%556 W · 550 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Max Houkes | 8c | 701.18$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ryan Nijboer | 61c | 575.49$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.1 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…5286backed Max Houkes | 25c | 500$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ryan Nijboer | 56c | 392.68$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.53 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Max Houkes | 70c | 333.32$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.33 | 420 | 46.9%197 W · 223 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Max Houkes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 721 | 32%231 W · 490 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Ryan Nijboer | 31c | 199.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.99 | 265 | 41.9%111 W · 154 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Max Houkes | 12c | 171.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b3…f8c1backed Max Houkes | 33c | 153.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Max Houkes | 36c | 114$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Max Houkes | 68c | 108.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Max Houkes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 779 | 67.8%528 W · 251 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Max Houkes | 67c | 93.37$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.56 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Max Houkes | 38c | 92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 737 | 45.2%333 W · 404 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd88a…1eefbacked Ryan Nijboer | 32c | 88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.05 | 544 | 34.2%186 W · 358 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Ryan Nijboer | 69c | 81.79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 619 | 53.3%330 W · 289 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Ryan Nijboer | 31c | 80.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.39 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Max Houkes | 41c | 79.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Max Houkes | 39c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Max Houkes | 60c | 68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Ryan Nijboer | 32c | 66.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…7159backed Ryan Nijboer | 33c | 61.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 903 | 40.2%363 W · 540 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Max Houkes | 54c | 59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Ryan Nijboer | 64c | 53.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6483…750abacked Ryan Nijboer | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f9…cd95backed Ryan Nijboer | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Max Houkes | 67c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 355 | 59.4%211 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Max Houkes | 35c | 49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Max Houkes | 41c | 47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 347 | 44.4%154 W · 193 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Max Houkes | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…1420backed Ryan Nijboer | 32c | 42.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 222 | 58.1%129 W · 93 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b9…9613backed Max Houkes | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 126 | 64.3%81 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked Ryan Nijboer | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Ryan Nijboer | 52c | 30.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…d240backed Max Houkes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 169 | 59.2%100 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Max Houkes | 60c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 689 | 51.1%352 W · 337 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0b…4d31backed Ryan Nijboer | 77c | 21.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Ryan Nijboer | 76c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 430 | 58.6%252 W · 178 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Max Houkes | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 580 | 67.8%393 W · 187 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.