TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Kigali: Max Houkes vs Ryan Nijboer

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ryan Nijboerof Max Houkes, Ryan Nijboer
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,835
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,723

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,835 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd6a3…9489backed Max Houkes7c4,335$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.572,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac86…b3b3backed Max Houkes34c3,257$1,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,107.36966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Max Houkes22c1,148$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.352,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Ryan Nijboer56c1,139$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.082,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6aad…20aebacked Max Houkes59c1,011$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60052460.9%319 W · 205 L+0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Max Houkes50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001,10650.3%556 W · 550 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Max Houkes8c701.18$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.013,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Ryan Nijboer61c575.49$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.16,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cb1…5286backed Max Houkes25c500$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12413134.4%45 W · 86 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ryan Nijboer56c392.68$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.537,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Max Houkes70c333.32$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.3342046.9%197 W · 223 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Max Houkes34c294.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10072132%231 W · 490 L-17.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Ryan Nijboer31c199.98$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.9926541.9%111 W · 154 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Max Houkes12c171.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.476,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6b3…f8c1backed Max Houkes33c153.42$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1515641.7%65 W · 91 L-8.1wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Max Houkes36c114$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8537342.6%159 W · 214 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Max Houkes68c108.99$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.951,83153%971 W · 860 L-45.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Max Houkes71c100$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7177967.8%528 W · 251 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Max Houkes67c93.37$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.561,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Max Houkes38c92$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0173745.2%333 W · 404 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd88a…1eefbacked Ryan Nijboer32c88$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.0554434.2%186 W · 358 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-2.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Ryan Nijboer69c81.79$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3861953.3%330 W · 289 L+18.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Ryan Nijboer31c80.8$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.392,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Max Houkes41c79.07$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.416,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Max Houkes39c75$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1299044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Max Houkes60c68$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7897046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Ryan Nijboer32c66.83$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.681,26529.2%370 W · 895 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31dd…7159backed Ryan Nijboer33c61.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3690340.2%363 W · 540 L+4.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Max Houkes54c59$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0bb…049fbacked Ryan Nijboer64c53.64$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.073551.4%18 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6483…750abacked Ryan Nijboer33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.54548.9%22 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x48f9…cd95backed Ryan Nijboer63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.54667.4%31 W · 15 L+0.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed Max Houkes67c49.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.735559.4%211 W · 144 L-10.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Max Houkes35c49$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.352,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Max Houkes41c47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3534744.4%154 W · 193 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Max Houkes36c45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.21,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x320f…1420backed Ryan Nijboer32c42.25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7322258.1%129 W · 93 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49b9…9613backed Max Houkes68c40$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.212664.3%81 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe564…221abacked Ryan Nijboer57c35.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.095841.4%24 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Ryan Nijboer52c30.01$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.524,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf69b…d240backed Max Houkes45c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.516959.2%100 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Max Houkes60c23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.868951.1%352 W · 337 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0b…4d31backed Ryan Nijboer77c21.73$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.044337.2%16 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Ryan Nijboer76c18.52$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5343058.6%252 W · 178 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9555…889abacked Max Houkes69c17.39$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1258067.8%393 W · 187 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.