Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0df40a68549b2c6a4e8ce21a8d89b56651b71e90226459ec3b31f00641b718c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,185$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.76 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 32c | 379.82$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.45 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 29c | 238.21$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.89 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 8c | 173.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 12c | 166.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 28c | 163.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f0…5cd7backed Yes | 8c | 161.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 48c | 149.38$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.71 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 16c | 146.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 27c | 144.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.05 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 133.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 76c | 130$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.21 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 120.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 10c | 116.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…c3c5backed Yes | 33c | 90.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed No | 45c | 78.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 24c | 59.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 53.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 59c | 46.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x632e…6a56backed No | 67c | 44.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 27c | 41.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 37c | 41.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked Yes | 30c | 41.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked No | 29c | 39.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a20…c1b5backed Yes | 64c | 39.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…1338backed No | 55c | 35.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 58c | 34.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 53c | 33.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 65c | 30.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 70c | 25.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 67c | 25.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c3…2a14backed Yes | 58c | 17.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 73c | 16.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.64 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on July 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 29°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 30°C or higher on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.