NHL · resolved market
Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0f62a8d3179d2e48cf60895a46934534727bbd2418ceca050a6d8e77b7aec51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Red Wingsof Red Wings, Kraken
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9bee…aa9ebacked Red Wings | 40c | 400$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Red Wings | 41c | 391$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.69 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…1726backed Kraken | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Red Wings | 39c | 174$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.14 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Kraken | 61c | 150$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 480 | 46.9%225 W · 255 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Kraken | 62c | 107$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.34 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Kraken | 60c | 101.72$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…a2e5backed Kraken | 65c | 58.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51bd…bc56backed Red Wings | 38c | 56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fd…b1e4backed Kraken | 63c | 50.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Kraken | 64c | 32.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 85 | 68.2%58 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…a93bbacked Red Wings | 38c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Kraken | 61c | 29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 173 | 56.6%98 W · 75 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)this page
- Kraken vs. Red WingsRed Wings won
- Kraken vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kraken vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.