Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $170-$175 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc108b749a8698dee38672584a4dfc8ed6c2dd73b0906358973e7cb7886e2a535
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,399 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7953…1199backed Yes | 11c | 2,683$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,387.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc618…e3a1backed Yes | 10c | 1,998$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,798.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +478.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…6a91backed Yes | 10c | 1,812$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,630.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dac…89b0backed Yes | 10c | 1,369$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,232.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +400%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…9c12backed Yes | 11c | 1,339$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab32…e7fbbacked Yes | 11c | 1,242$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3295…870bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,092$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…c446backed Yes | 10c | 982$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +488.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4837…41fdbacked Yes | 10c | 807$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +281.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45cd…bfcabacked Yes | 10c | 784$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ef…ba02backed Yes | 14c | 767.34$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.91 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc49…9056backed Yes | 10c | 750$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +391.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa8…39d7backed Yes | 10c | 731$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc548…65dcbacked Yes | 10c | 522$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +400%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4e…a573backed Yes | 10c | 401$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 21cpaid | +400%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x482f…0c15backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +203%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x070d…6ff7backed Yes | 9c | 250$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 6c | 249.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.98 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb1…333fbacked Yes | 11c | 186$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 28cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b72…0cc0backed Yes | 10c | 116$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 41cpaid | +470.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed No | 78c | 52.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1b…6ef9backed Yes | 33c | 50.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 43c | 41.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 28c | 36.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd650…8d74backed Yes | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $170-$175 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $175-$180 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $180-$185 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $185-$190 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $190-$195 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $195-$200 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.