NHL · resolved market
KHL: Lada Togliatti vs. CSKA Moscow
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc10ad0b4ecf4bad2cd8159d1da62a4dbe7a5baee60377ae044a7393f4687c633
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lada Togliattiof Lada Togliatti, CSKA Moscow
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03bc…63c4backed CSKA Moscow | 72c | 138.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Lada Togliatti | 29c | 110.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.1 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Lada Togliatti | 28c | 109.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Lada Togliatti | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed CSKA Moscow | 70c | 82.32$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Lada Togliatti | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 159 | 44.7%71 W · 88 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed CSKA Moscow | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked CSKA Moscow | 73c | 37.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked CSKA Moscow | 69c | 22.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df0…9a65backed CSKA Moscow | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Lada Togliatti | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6753…b37dbacked CSKA Moscow | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.