South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-11-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1268e03caf4093e909f5212769cfb7ff3b09f74be2297c4e3d87c76edf72853
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 42c | 50,000$21,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,799.98 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed No | 57c | 39,551$22,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,543.87 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed No | 60c | 10,164$6,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,098.18 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf1…1d5dbacked Yes | 75c | 3,322$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 31c | 3,165$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.65 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa365…ee73backed No | 59c | 2,000$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Yes | 43c | 2,000$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,145.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 26c | 1,712$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.85 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 56c | 1,518$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b9…275abacked Yes | 41c | 988.66$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 43c | 907.83$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.66 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 57c | 853.82$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.59 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 79c | 564.63$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.54 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked No | 60c | 498.69$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…85dabacked Yes | 57c | 350.73$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.73 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked No | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 19c | 230.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…0730backed Yes | 41c | 199$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.43 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Yes | 39c | 192$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.12 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 76c | 182$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -9.0wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…a7b5backed Yes | 77c | 181.82$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ef…ddaabacked Yes | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 21c | 136.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 59c | 134$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b6…bc8abacked Yes | 75c | 133.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…3e9fbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5b…b993backed No | 60c | 84.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked No | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Yes | 40c | 79.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.39 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…4ec4backed Yes | 41c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 37c | 62.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…7a20backed Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 41c | 58.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d11…0c08backed Yes | 40c | 55.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x192f…352bbacked Yes | 72c | 50.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1182…b6bbbacked No | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…dc85backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…7ddebacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xded7…1ef1backed Yes | 75c | 26.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-11-05?this page
- Will Grêmio FBPA vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?No won
- Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2025-11-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.