NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc17e3e0191fa36d37c4f31162ba2b31c3eb9e17e9c01df846f3ab2f6b30b9b41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 47c | 7,931$3,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,203.27 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 54c | 5,646$3,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,066.93 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 46c | 4,000$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,159.99 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 3,407$1,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,805.89 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Over | 53c | 2,830$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.9 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 45c | 299.99$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Over | 53c | 283$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 222 | 48.2%107 W · 115 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 32c | 187.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 203 | 45.3%92 W · 111 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 312 | 57.4%179 W · 133 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 68c | 162.53$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.01 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ade…e692backed Over | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…082abacked Under | 65c | 124.13$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Over | 57c | 120$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 60c | 120$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.98 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb07…0769backed Over | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 51c | 73.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 40c | 71.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54f3…ae84backed Under | 46c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…3551backed Under | 25c | 50.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Under | 43c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 53c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 46c | 32.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Over | 53c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 103 | 67%69 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 48c | 25.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2643…28c2backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5this page
- Lightning vs. IslandersIslanders won
- Lightning vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Islanders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.