NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Islanders
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x779f48439073ed9c3163265e9d4c12c70f286ed5da5e415157d4e1c54b247132
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Islandersof Lightning, Islanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $279,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $284,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $279,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 295 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Islanders | 69c | 81,826$56,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,516.99 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Lightning | 45c | 60,000$26,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,799.99 | 425 | 52.2%222 W · 203 L | +25.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Lightning | 55c | 17,496$9,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,612.06 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…194dbacked Lightning | 35c | 16,600$5,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,805.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Lightning | 1c | 12,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 217 | 4.1%9 W · 208 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Islanders | 45c | 10,000$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,500 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Islanders | 47c | 9,960$4,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,278.76 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Lightning | 54c | 7,727$4,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,172.58 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Islanders | 45c | 6,938$3,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,790.96 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Islanders | 46c | 6,640$3,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,585.59 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Islanders | 75c | 5,742$4,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,456.81 | 996 | 38.2%380 W · 616 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…5019backed Lightning | 54c | 5,556$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…1e2abacked Islanders | 47c | 5,155$2,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,733.51 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Islanders | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,699.99 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a89…2f26backed Lightning | 55c | 4,995$2,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,747.22 | 705 | 47.7%336 W · 369 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Islanders | 45c | 4,533$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,493 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…8078backed Islanders | 45c | 4,398$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,399.54 | 622 | 49.4%307 W · 315 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Lightning | 54c | 4,208$2,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,272.42 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1297…ed45backed Islanders | 65c | 4,150$2,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,457.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9571…1d98backed Lightning | 57c | 4,105$2,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,358.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Lightning | 41c | 4,000$1,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,640 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Islanders | 45c | 4,000$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200 | 221 | 50.2%111 W · 110 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Lightning | 21c | 3,922$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.95 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Islanders | 45c | 3,828$1,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,106.41 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…a240backed Lightning | 53c | 3,741$1,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,982.3 | 500 | 49.6%248 W · 252 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Islanders | 45c | 3,597$1,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,989.21 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…f867backed Islanders | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e1…50aabacked Islanders | 50c | 2,844$1,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,411.32 | 105 | 65.7%69 W · 36 L | +15.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Lightning | 54c | 2,619$1,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,403.37 | 976 | 51.6%504 W · 472 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Islanders | 45c | 2,409$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320.66 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Lightning | 1c | 2,222$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 745 | 0.7%5 W · 740 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Lightning | 54c | 2,194$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.46 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Islanders | 50c | 2,164$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.31 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Islanders | 47c | 2,141$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.01 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Islanders | 45c | 2,100$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.99 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Islanders | 57c | 2,085$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.26 | 1,354 | 52.6%712 W · 642 L | +46.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Lightning | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,163 | 2.3%27 W · 1,136 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…85d8backed Lightning | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Islanders | 47c | 2,000$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,070 | 162 | 41.4%67 W · 95 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb07…0769backed Lightning | 4c | 1,793$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.74 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…6f22backed Lightning | 54c | 1,788$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.68 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca5…6d0cbacked Lightning | 54c | 1,786$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a10…543cbacked Lightning | 54c | 1,781$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Islanders | 46c | 1,739$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.13 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a4…5c3fbacked Islanders | 46c | 1,667$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.18 | 305 | 51.5%157 W · 148 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Lightning | 54c | 1,662$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Islanders | 45c | 1,634$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.47 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb4…48e3backed Lightning | 24c | 1,621$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…45f9backed Lightning | 54c | 1,579$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.8wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -30%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Islanders | 66c | 1,548$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.8 | 1,301 | 52.6%684 W · 617 L | +23.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Lightning | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795 | 1,475 | 48.3%712 W · 763 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…4c6dbacked Lightning | 54c | 1,500$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -9.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Islanders | 63c | 1,463$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.91 | 950 | 49.1%466 W · 484 L | +12.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…d1eebacked Lightning | 29c | 1,434$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.32 | 177 | 49.2%87 W · 90 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lightning | 53c | 1,346$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.5 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Islanders | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.11 | 603 | 37.5%226 W · 377 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Islanders | 68c | 1,102$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.13 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +8.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4660…c5afbacked Lightning | 1c | 1,084$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa5…f206backed Lightning | 55c | 1,036$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be4…c601backed Islanders | 46c | 1,022$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Lightning | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Lightning | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 454 | 47.8%217 W · 237 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…fdc6backed Lightning | 23c | 999.93$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Lightning | 37c | 994.33$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.31 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -20.5wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Islanders | 43c | 900.11$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.4 | 437 | 42.3%185 W · 252 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Islanders | 72c | 896.88$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.48 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Islanders | 49c | 809.27$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.12 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ee…fb4fbacked Lightning | 37c | 798.48$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Lightning | 31c | 637.5$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.5 | 132 | 51.5%68 W · 64 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcae4…b305backed Islanders | 49c | 608.7$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…61bbbacked Lightning | 56c | 607.14$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 412 | 48.3%199 W · 213 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd02a…c712backed Islanders | 49c | 600$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309 | 387 | 44.2%171 W · 216 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…2e01backed Islanders | 45c | 584.8$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.64 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c3…955abacked Islanders | 46c | 557.99$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7227…5285backed Islanders | 42c | 512$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.96 | 151 | 46.4%70 W · 81 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Lightning | 58c | 507$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.02 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14b…1ad3backed Islanders | 69c | 500$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Lightning | 54c | 499.99$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.74 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Lightning | 55c | 480$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 497 | 46.5%231 W · 266 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Islanders | 62c | 438.44$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.14 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Lightning | 26c | 436.24$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.25 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d7…da62backed Islanders | 49c | 411.06$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.06 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Islanders | 50c | 400.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.14 | 413 | 40%165 W · 248 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Islanders | 45c | 400$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218 | 439 | 44.6%196 W · 243 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204e…aa95backed Islanders | 72c | 388.89$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8525…bdbabacked Islanders | 68c | 387$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.02 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa10…0570backed Islanders | 46c | 380$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Lightning | 26c | 364.65$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.81 | 181 | 32%58 W · 123 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc007…1639backed Islanders | 47c | 354.47$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.87 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Islanders | 45c | 335$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.25 | 470 | 51.5%242 W · 228 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Islanders | 45c | 333$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.15 | 222 | 48.2%107 W · 115 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 23c | 308.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.89 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd8…aeabbacked Lightning | 53c | 307.62$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.04 | 269 | 55.8%150 W · 119 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3c…615dbacked Islanders | 80c | 305.6$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67e3…e5b3backed Lightning | 33c | 303.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6668…ad96backed Islanders | 77c | 300.2$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 59cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Lightning | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae9…74acbacked Lightning | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb134…af68backed Lightning | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Islanders | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 1,087 | 45.1%490 W · 597 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Islandersthis page
- Lightning vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Islanders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.