Serie A · resolved market
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: Draw at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc196bc2a65afd40007afae241a9da42eeb574b809b5e2ea913e1c8728c71f897
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 41c | 1,070$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.32 | 342 | 39.2%134 W · 208 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 59c | 909.01$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.37 | 511 | 39.1%200 W · 311 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Yes | 53c | 788.21$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed No | 59c | 400$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +11.2wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed No | 59c | 400$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 61 | 70.5%43 W · 18 L | +11.0wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…5439backed Yes | 41c | 268.9$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked No | 60c | 260$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed No | 60c | 195.39$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.93 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x033a…586dbacked No | 55c | 161.22$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.55 | 27 | 85.2%23 W · 4 L | +6.7wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…93f5backed Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 59c | 139$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…2e83backed Yes | 40c | 137.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 60c | 99.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 249 | 53.8%134 W · 115 L | +20.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed No | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 40c | 54.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…ff1cbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 40c | 34.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 159 | 46.5%74 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f0…285fbacked No | 60c | 31.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 69c | 18.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: Draw at halftime?this page
- ACF Fiorentina leading at halftime?Yes won
- Atalanta BC leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.