Tennis · resolved market
Cervia: Giovanni Oradini vs Guido Justo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2614e5344d60a7886d11b6e482dc77afc34261372952c384cac3a4ab0b9d94c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Guido Justoof Giovanni Oradini, Guido Justo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Giovanni Oradini | 10c | 14,705$1,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,535.72 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Giovanni Oradini | 9c | 4,010$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.82 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Giovanni Oradini | 14c | 2,845$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.57 | 4,760 | 49.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L | +176.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Giovanni Oradini | 11c | 2,029$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.34 | 6,652 | 50.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L | +263.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Giovanni Oradini | 42c | 999.96$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.98 | 856 | 34.2%293 W · 563 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Giovanni Oradini | 18c | 925.95$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.87 | 168 | 44.6%75 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8644…ad01backed Giovanni Oradini | 35c | 750$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.5 | 260 | 49.2%128 W · 132 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Giovanni Oradini | 11c | 624.48$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 128 | 36.7%47 W · 81 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Guido Justo | 65c | 521.94$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.68 | 1,883 | 44.8%843 W · 1,040 L | +36.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Giovanni Oradini | 26c | 475.25$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.31 | 243 | 29.6%72 W · 171 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Guido Justo | 58c | 463.27$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.57 | 345 | 49.9%172 W · 173 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Guido Justo | 71c | 373.19$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.2 | 2,061 | 48.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L | +35.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Giovanni Oradini | 29c | 344.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Guido Justo | 77c | 282.37$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.57 | 2,099 | 44.5%935 W · 1,164 L | -51.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Giovanni Oradini | 7c | 273.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Giovanni Oradini | 23c | 263.78$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.67 | 988 | 41.3%408 W · 580 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f57…2282backed Guido Justo | 77c | 259.18$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.18 | 369 | 64.2%237 W · 132 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Giovanni Oradini | 9c | 139$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 690 | 57.2%395 W · 295 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfe…bfb7backed Giovanni Oradini | 18c | 122.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…ed94backed Giovanni Oradini | 35c | 111.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 1,458 | 54%787 W · 671 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Guido Justo | 65c | 106.11$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 1,881 | 45.7%860 W · 1,021 L | +51.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Giovanni Oradini | 20c | 105.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 592 | 53.5%317 W · 275 L | +22.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Guido Justo | 65c | 104.92$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Guido Justo | 63c | 103.17$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 1,639 | 55.1%903 W · 736 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d18…6f62backed Guido Justo | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 560 | 62.5%350 W · 210 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Giovanni Oradini | 34c | 94.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5,325 | 28.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L | -21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Guido Justo | 66c | 91.12$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 1,148 | 53%608 W · 540 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Guido Justo | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 897 | 54.6%490 W · 407 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Guido Justo | 58c | 78.62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 992 | 55.9%555 W · 437 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Giovanni Oradini | 28c | 67.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 830 | 47%390 W · 440 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…98a7backed Guido Justo | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 172 | 42.4%73 W · 99 L | -17.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x175e…8e46backed Guido Justo | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 103 | 63.1%65 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Guido Justo | 55c | 42.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x400d…e759backed Guido Justo | 62c | 41.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 608 | 56.6%344 W · 264 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Guido Justo | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 962 | 55.8%537 W · 425 L | +21.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Guido Justo | 73c | 33.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 783 | 50.3%394 W · 389 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…f12fbacked Guido Justo | 58c | 31.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 595 | 65.4%389 W · 206 L | +17.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Guido Justo | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 423 | 53.7%227 W · 196 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c5…dbf1backed Giovanni Oradini | 40c | 29.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +139.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Guido Justo | 70c | 26.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59ae…ffb1backed Guido Justo | 69c | 21.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 112 | 61.6%69 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Guido Justo | 74c | 20.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…bf43backed Guido Justo | 63c | 18.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.