MLB · resolved market
Phillies vs. Mets: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc294ba2c6d4dfe9a7ac63e2d55e2c4c79521937871d6395361f78a5312b79b65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Under | 39c | 745.39$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.68 | 543 | 45.5%247 W · 296 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Over | 61c | 491$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.51 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 57c | 155.05$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.14 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e3…fff7backed Under | 42c | 119.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Over | 58c | 119.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb219…9f58backed Under | 42c | 103.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Over | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 457 | 32.2%147 W · 310 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 301 | 51.5%155 W · 146 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f77…3f95backed Under | 43c | 97.88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.79 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc5…3281backed Over | 61c | 94.43$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1078…a7aebacked Over | 61c | 72.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x448a…f2b7backed Over | 61c | 69.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…f2cebacked Over | 61c | 62.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e50…d9abbacked Over | 61c | 30.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5807…cd4fbacked Under | 44c | 29.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Over | 61c | 27.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -7.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc1…201bbacked Over | 61c | 24.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Phillies vs. Mets: O/U 7.5this page
- Phillies vs. MetsMets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.