UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Will Rountree win by KO/TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2d496c21dba014f677c2f266ea942a6ccd1b760bf10972b354a135803e08c7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked No | 62c | 316.08$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.11 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed No | 59c | 314.04$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.72 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed Yes | 38c | 203.17$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.17 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed0…92debacked Yes | 42c | 123.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bb…c96bbacked Yes | 38c | 84.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…abb3backed Yes | 42c | 82.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa0…7894backed No | 79c | 81.49$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 55c | 75.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 57c | 69.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…e895backed Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7a…87ebbacked Yes | 38c | 66.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30cc…5ed3backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…08c7backed Yes | 41c | 39.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 59c | 39.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…587bbacked No | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Will Rountree win by KO/TKO?this page
- UFC Fight Night: Will Hill win by KO/TKO?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Will Hill win by points?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Will Hill win by submission? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.