Australian A League · resolved market
Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2025-12-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2dfaed9fcf0ac975ac8ead0d35c7687b1717720de5c10968830f68798578d6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $184,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $183,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $184,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Yes | 16c | 117,306$18,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,295.83 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 14c | 11,685$1,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,692.79 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 14c | 11,067$1,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,602.21 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 15c | 10,081$1,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,539.38 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 19c | 6,269$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178.08 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 15c | 5,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed Yes | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 18c | 1,209$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.51 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Yes | 18c | 1,159$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.86 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Yes | 17c | 700$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd2…5dfdbacked Yes | 18c | 540.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 18c | 488.12$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.18 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedfd…1432backed Yes | 20c | 441.2$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8dc…091fbacked Yes | 6c | 433.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Yes | 17c | 359.01$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 18c | 346.19$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 11c | 294.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd8…a28ebacked Yes | 19c | 240.05$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba8…c31fbacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x604d…4608backed Yes | 19c | 155.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…f75cbacked Yes | 17c | 140$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb556…14bfbacked No | 30c | 135.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +191.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaba…8ae4backed Yes | 19c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Yes | 17c | 89.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…9779backed Yes | 19c | 88.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 18c | 80.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 18c | 76.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 76.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 18c | 75.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 18c | 74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0e…c6a8backed Yes | 18c | 61.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e84…b7f6backed Yes | 17c | 60.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2025-12-29?this page
- Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2025-12-29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.