NHL · resolved market
AHL: San Diego Gulls vs. Coachella Valley Firebirds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3089f54f8113956dc01af13284188998f6265ac5aa8b206892429299afe8b01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Gullsof San Diego Gulls, Coachella Valley Firebirds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4d9…0f1cbacked Coachella Valley Firebirds | 58c | 54,781$31,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,570 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41c4…e363backed San Diego Gulls | 43c | 30,812$13,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,667.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +134.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb247…0e78backed San Diego Gulls | 42c | 23,969$10,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,902.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed San Diego Gulls | 42c | 5,238$2,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,050.13 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Coachella Valley Firebirds | 58c | 1,682$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.76 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Coachella Valley Firebirds | 58c | 1,202$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.16 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…93cdbacked Coachella Valley Firebirds | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Coachella Valley Firebirds | 59c | 677.97$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Coachella Valley Firebirds | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40da…0b85backed Coachella Valley Firebirds | 58c | 177.55$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.92 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed San Diego Gulls | 42c | 171.55$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.5 | 119 | 33.6%40 W · 79 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Coachella Valley Firebirds | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed San Diego Gulls | 58c | 62.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 366 | 62%227 W · 139 L | +39.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed Coachella Valley Firebirds | 56c | 23.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Coachella Valley Firebirds | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.