South American Leagues · resolved market
Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc31be8893483a0c7c38eb34a2b72f651470c95e9cbe624674336592ef4ac9914
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 26c | 1,490$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.72 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 68c | 1,200$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.76 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 14c | 968.17$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.03 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 25c | 737.73$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.41 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed Under | 18c | 371.91$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca3…f975backed Under | 28c | 337.83$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.92 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Under | 17c | 249.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…8620backed Under | 30c | 212.26$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.67 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 9c | 151$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5258…534ebacked Over | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8249…9169backed Over | 76c | 73.56$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f8…4078backed Under | 24c | 72.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a48…dc30backed Under | 36c | 32.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cb…1499backed Over | 69c | 26.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 78c | 23.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 206 | 65%134 W · 72 L | +24.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 70c | 16.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 258 | 66.3%171 W · 87 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: O/U 0.5this page
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: O/U 1.5Over won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: O/U 2.5Under won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: O/U 3.5Under won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: O/U 4.5Under won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CS Cristal (-1.5)Club Cerro Porteño won
- Spread: Club Cerro Porteño (-1.5)Club Cerro Porteño won
- Spread: Club Cerro Porteño (-2.5)CS Cristal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.