South American Leagues · resolved market
Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x703bf3f6021e23f81937a3e470a148d8d4c60f16dd28ec787a75e5ba0243db37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc283…b876backed Over | 33c | 4,471$1,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,999.95 | 79 | 22.8%18 W · 61 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 3,520$1,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,905.74 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 47c | 3,283$1,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,543.61 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 56c | 3,264$1,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,818.84 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88bf…0933backed Under | 9c | 2,623$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.16 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 1,847$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.83 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Under | 31c | 1,316$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.61 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 32c | 1,200$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.81 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…c161backed Over | 35c | 1,143$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.86 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +9.1wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 50c | 683.31$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.26 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 53c | 553.38$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.82 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 54c | 547.23$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.07 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf83…3385backed Under | 50c | 500$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.05 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1782…2928backed Over | 65c | 456.34$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 69c | 356.99$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.73 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 50c | 344.67$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.34 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf80f…34a9backed Over | 58c | 341.89$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.9 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +7.5wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc7…43e5backed Over | 60c | 333$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 31c | 319.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.79 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 70c | 285.81$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.81 | 50 | 70%35 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 30c | 278.81$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.64 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x210a…1080backed Over | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 58c | 246.96$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.05 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4571…a952backed Under | 37c | 216.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 30c | 199.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.98 | 191 | 35.1%67 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Under | 43c | 174.42$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Over | 31c | 157.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 68c | 150.47$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 65c | 125.37$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Under | 46c | 123.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf1…a604backed Over | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 60c | 75.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 258 | 66.3%171 W · 87 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 54c | 65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…974ebacked Over | 33c | 60.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked Under | 31c | 58.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Over | 36c | 55.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517a…6491backed Under | 56c | 53.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 52c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Under | 66c | 37.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…da8ebacked Over | 62c | 29.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…033ebacked Over | 45c | 29.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Over | 65c | 25.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8232…e71dbacked Under | 67c | 22.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff66…39cfbacked Under | 68c | 19.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e4…8b89backed Over | 79c | 18.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: O/U 1.5this page
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: O/U 0.5Over won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: O/U 2.5Under won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: O/U 3.5Under won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: O/U 4.5Under won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CS Cristal (-1.5)Club Cerro Porteño won
- Spread: Club Cerro Porteño (-1.5)Club Cerro Porteño won
- Spread: Club Cerro Porteño (-2.5)CS Cristal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.