South American Leagues · resolved market
Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfeba0e3f3d38a1ff92e05995045b5e8a1604e843dfe3f3eace2fdefcecc1c7ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc283…b876backed Over | 21c | 4,560$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.8 | 79 | 22.8%18 W · 61 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 2,916$2,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.97 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 13c | 2,044$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.04 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 42c | 1,449$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.67 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 58c | 1,415$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.45 | 110 | 59.1%65 W · 45 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 69c | 1,292$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.12 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed Over | 10c | 1,091$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.53 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 14c | 781.34$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.39 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8806…2e83backed Over | 4c | 692.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 57c | 644.71$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.32 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 78c | 629.25$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.01 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46cd…6b95backed Over | 4c | 625$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 123 | 40.7%50 W · 73 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…6a99backed Over | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 10c | 499.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 56c | 427.86$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.26 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425b…dbfdbacked Over | 43c | 362.39$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.85 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0563…f41cbacked Over | 17c | 315.78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 28c | 299.97$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Over | 43c | 290.7$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -65%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 57c | 273.81$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.26 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9605…a2c4backed Under | 69c | 272.46$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.46 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…3b21backed Under | 58c | 247$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.74 | 127 | 54.3%69 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 57c | 245$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.65 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 317 | 45.1%143 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Over | 22c | 222.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 57c | 218.64$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.01 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4571…a952backed Under | 74c | 213.51$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.51 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 43c | 211.07$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.76 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Over | 15c | 197.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 56c | 187.87$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.66 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…92d6backed Over | 34c | 174.47$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…eee6backed Under | 57c | 170.9$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.64 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 57c | 160.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 56c | 136.56$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.09 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…7eb2backed Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 44c | 114.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 44c | 114.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…6d59backed Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…faa4backed Under | 55c | 107.63$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.63 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210a…1080backed Over | 24c | 99.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…75f0backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1c…3347backed Over | 38c | 65.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 215 | 38.1%82 W · 133 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 43c | 62.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…8c82backed Over | 48c | 57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -45%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 58c | 53.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Under | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 57c | 51.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Over | 43c | 37.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 42c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 213 | 49.8%106 W · 107 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 29c | 34.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 251 | 47.8%120 W · 131 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1400…765dbacked Over | 43c | 32.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…4f5dbacked Under | 63c | 31.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x517a…6491backed Under | 77c | 26.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 118 | 64.4%76 W · 42 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 49c | 24.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Under | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 103 | 65%67 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…5300backed Under | 78c | 23.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 57c | 22.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 278 | 55.4%154 W · 124 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…fc6ebacked Under | 77c | 20.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: O/U 2.5this page
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: O/U 0.5Over won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: O/U 1.5Over won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: O/U 3.5Under won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: O/U 4.5Under won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CS Cristal (-1.5)Club Cerro Porteño won
- Spread: Club Cerro Porteño (-1.5)Club Cerro Porteño won
- Spread: Club Cerro Porteño (-2.5)CS Cristal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.