Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Hive vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc327fbb591cbe741507515a649b38a6b26d4f58718977430f4d64069afc8253d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hiveof Hive, Spirit Academy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed Spirit Academy | 52c | 15,000$7,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,799.92 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…b744backed Hive | 48c | 2,488$1,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,293.83 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Hive | 69c | 2,014$1,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.03 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41e…e2e9backed Spirit Academy | 4c | 1,521$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.46 | 37 | 5.4%2 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a3…5857backed Hive | 48c | 1,313$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.76 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked Hive | 48c | 1,281$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.89 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Hive | 49c | 996.08$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.21 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…790cbacked Hive | 48c | 880$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.6 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…99a3backed Hive | 48c | 606$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.12 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -17.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2957…b26abacked Hive | 48c | 545.83$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.83 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Hive | 60c | 448.9$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.35 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Hive | 48c | 395.83$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.83 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Hive | 51c | 348.07$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.61 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Hive | 54c | 346.14$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.84 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffa…7710backed Hive | 48c | 304.75$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.47 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed Spirit Academy | 55c | 272.71$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3776…e17abacked Hive | 48c | 253$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.56 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Hive | 48c | 232.07$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.68 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Hive | 57c | 202.01$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.55 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Spirit Academy | 48c | 194.58$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.38 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Hive | 55c | 184.91$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Hive | 48c | 174.4$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.69 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Hive | 54c | 169.35$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.06 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x996c…2bf1backed Hive | 48c | 146.3$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…72d2backed Hive | 80c | 134.8$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Hive | 45c | 113.11$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Hive | 53c | 102$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Hive | 59c | 101.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe123…b4ffbacked Hive | 50c | 100.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.26 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…a5d4backed Hive | 48c | 83.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…d83abacked Hive | 76c | 78.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Hive | 52c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Hive | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Hive | 52c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Hive | 54c | 69.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 153 | 42.5%65 W · 88 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…084cbacked Hive | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Hive | 53c | 67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Hive | 69c | 59.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Hive | 56c | 42.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Hive | 54c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a0…18ffbacked Hive | 48c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Hive | 52c | 30.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Hive | 51c | 29.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Hive | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…9657backed Hive | 48c | 27.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba56…140dbacked Hive | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x249e…4fa6backed Hive | 48c | 21.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Hive | 58c | 20.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Hive vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Hive vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group AHive won
- Dota 2: Hive vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 WinnerSpirit Academy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.