Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Hive vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xece453a54048dbdf12fa5ec5bad21411af5f8090b2ab49dc19554f4a198e2995
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spirit Academyof Hive, Spirit Academy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Spirit Academy | 62c | 520.23$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.23 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed Hive | 39c | 384.61$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Spirit Academy | 80c | 329.31$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.4 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Hive | 22c | 317$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.31 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b3…c2d7backed Hive | 49c | 305.1$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.81 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…528ebacked Hive | 38c | 223.68$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Spirit Academy | 62c | 149.98$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.7wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Hive | 38c | 138.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Spirit Academy | 61c | 132.93$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.01 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Hive | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Spirit Academy | 59c | 85.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Hive | 47c | 76.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Spirit Academy | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Spirit Academy | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffa…7710backed Hive | 49c | 58.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d94…cc42backed Hive | 44c | 37.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a3…5857backed Hive | 49c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Spirit Academy | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Spirit Academy | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Hive vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Hive vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group AHive won
- Dota 2: Hive vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 WinnerHive won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.