Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Most Wanted (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc32a54fe9c6e16e17b30e92d136e5aafb6ece25807fbf0947e94ff91c41d6b17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Most Wantedof Team Lynx, Most Wanted
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58f8…dc70backed Most Wanted | 78c | 5,913$4,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,289.17 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f47…d0a3backed Team Lynx | 3c | 2,547$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.17 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc192…086cbacked Team Lynx | 25c | 2,017$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.96 | 145 | 38.6%56 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Team Lynx | 23c | 2,000$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.38 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked Team Lynx | 25c | 1,500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Team Lynx | 4c | 1,191$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdac9…56e7backed Team Lynx | 23c | 998.58$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed Team Lynx | 18c | 777$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.08 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x791b…029ebacked Team Lynx | 33c | 734.98$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Team Lynx | 17c | 678.21$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.26 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Team Lynx | 20c | 675.97$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.48 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Most Wanted | 75c | 585$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.25 | 253 | 48.6%123 W · 130 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…52bcbacked Most Wanted | 75c | 560$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Most Wanted | 76c | 520.65$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.16 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46fe…a43dbacked Most Wanted | 75c | 466.47$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.47 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Most Wanted | 74c | 403.33$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.33 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…6df7backed Team Lynx | 21c | 320.74$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 127 | 20.5%26 W · 101 L | -22.6wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed Most Wanted | 75c | 317.95$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.99 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7953…ed24backed Team Lynx | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 29cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Most Wanted | 76c | 245.21$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.21 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x653e…bbc0backed Team Lynx | 21c | 223.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 101 | 36.6%37 W · 64 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Team Lynx | 24c | 209.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 208 | 38.9%81 W · 127 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Most Wanted | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 166 | 65.7%109 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…b61cbacked Team Lynx | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Most Wanted | 77c | 184.89$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.28 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9801…1ab6backed Most Wanted | 74c | 174.35$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Team Lynx | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Most Wanted | 78c | 140.06$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Most Wanted | 78c | 127.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0155…a6ffbacked Team Lynx | 14c | 116.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5b…2b07backed Team Lynx | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Team Lynx | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Team Lynx | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c3…2149backed Team Lynx | 24c | 70.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Team Lynx | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bc…110bbacked Team Lynx | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Most Wanted | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dea…b021backed Most Wanted | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x566e…1340backed Most Wanted | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Team Lynx | 54c | 42.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a73…9daabacked Most Wanted | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae9f…4967backed Most Wanted | 79c | 25.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed Most Wanted | 80c | 22.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfffb…5f95backed Most Wanted | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbaa…f9b5backed Most Wanted | 78c | 19.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Most Wanted | 76c | 17.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x734e…88e5backed Most Wanted | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 74cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Most Wanted (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Most Wanted - Game 1 WinnerMost Wanted won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Most Wanted - Game 2 WinnerMost Wanted won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.