Tennis · resolved market
Morelia: Alan Magadan vs Luka Pavlovic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc37910b337be6e9fe455f6e4ab7c85ab9738ff5fe916e30a4a0fdc6698017715
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Luka Pavlovicof Alan Magadan, Luka Pavlovic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,939 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x027f…472abacked Alan Magadan | 25c | 3,994$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Alan Magadan | 7c | 3,832$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.22 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Alan Magadan | 8c | 2,642$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Luka Pavlovic | 78c | 2,401$1,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.28 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Alan Magadan | 8c | 2,400$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.51 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Alan Magadan | 11c | 1,799$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.65 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Alan Magadan | 14c | 1,249$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.01 | 223 | 37.7%84 W · 139 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc51…6b1cbacked Alan Magadan | 8c | 618.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Alan Magadan | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Alan Magadan | 18c | 390.88$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.6 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Alan Magadan | 16c | 268$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Alan Magadan | 9c | 263.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 287 | 24.4%70 W · 217 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Alan Magadan | 16c | 245.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Alan Magadan | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 5.3%3 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Luka Pavlovic | 74c | 167$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 967 | 55.3%535 W · 432 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Alan Magadan | 18c | 141.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 1,444 | 38%548 W · 896 L | -46.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd88a…1eefbacked Alan Magadan | 19c | 125.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 544 | 34.2%186 W · 358 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Luka Pavlovic | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Alan Magadan | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 269 | 41.3%111 W · 158 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Alan Magadan | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ee…d3d0backed Luka Pavlovic | 41c | 50.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…d6c0backed Luka Pavlovic | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Luka Pavlovic | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 474 | 53.2%252 W · 222 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.