Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3a3cb0f8000d7ce9496499bad4218769b92320288c7cf4e6881662b9ac42a05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yellow Submarineof VP.Prodigy, Yellow Submarine
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,926 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd03b…c2c6backed Yellow Submarine | 57c | 450$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x227f…405dbacked VP.Prodigy | 42c | 450$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee0…f8f9backed Yellow Submarine | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…cbf0backed VP.Prodigy | 43c | 400$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed VP.Prodigy | 11c | 386.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5808…d235backed Yellow Submarine | 75c | 240.39$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked VP.Prodigy | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Yellow Submarine | 55c | 222.22$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…9a41backed Yellow Submarine | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 230 | 50.9%117 W · 113 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked VP.Prodigy | 26c | 113$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group AYellow Submarine won
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 WinnerYellow Submarine won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.