South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: AA Argentinos Juniors (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3d742251fbac31280d72bdaaa720bd7f884428a9af31f9e419deb65b149f108
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CA Barracas Centralof AA Argentinos Juniors, CA Barracas Central
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed AA Argentinos Juniors | 41c | 2,277$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.58 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed CA Barracas Central | 72c | 1,716$1,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.03 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked AA Argentinos Juniors | 18c | 1,122$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.97 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed CA Barracas Central | 59c | 814$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.74 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed CA Barracas Central | 59c | 700$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed AA Argentinos Juniors | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked CA Barracas Central | 59c | 325$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.25 | 233 | 54.9%128 W · 105 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52fe…effdbacked AA Argentinos Juniors | 42c | 193.07$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…94e9backed AA Argentinos Juniors | 41c | 163.02$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…ee4dbacked AA Argentinos Juniors | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked CA Barracas Central | 57c | 80.56$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213b…cd48backed AA Argentinos Juniors | 20c | 70.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked AA Argentinos Juniors | 44c | 64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed CA Barracas Central | 58c | 47.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed CA Barracas Central | 58c | 46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed CA Barracas Central | 58c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…9ac3backed AA Argentinos Juniors | 41c | 24.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 42cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AA Argentinos Juniors (-1.5)this page
- AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Barracas Central: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Barracas Central: O/U 1.5Over won
- AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Barracas Central: O/U 2.5Under won
- AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Barracas Central: O/U 3.5Under won
- AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Barracas Central: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Barracas Central (-1.5)AA Argentinos Juniors won
- Spread: CA Barracas Central (-2.5)AA Argentinos Juniors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.