South American Leagues · resolved market
AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Barracas Central: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ea23b0a6490d5d8df50978cf5d9dfcf48a1a896d05a78e4304c89bc3f175efa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 46c | 2,200$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,187.99 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 34c | 2,073$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.17 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 48c | 1,367$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.13 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 80c | 1,003$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.28 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 926.6$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.39 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91e…b045backed Under | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc461…83dbbacked Under | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…3bd4backed Under | 20c | 462.81$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.93 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 65c | 429.09$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.48 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb5…cabdbacked Under | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Over | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x140d…a937backed Over | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Under | 21c | 257.17$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.01 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +5.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +121%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Over | 79c | 235.44$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 61c | 179.62$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.62 | 166 | 56%93 W · 73 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…f3c4backed Over | 47c | 169.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.99 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 36c | 110.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…22a0backed Under | 10c | 106.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…9691backed Over | 43c | 104.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 33c | 102.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0aa…6818backed Over | 79c | 93.84$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4868…c8d1backed Under | 22c | 92.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 47c | 56.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 65c | 50.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…44e8backed Over | 28c | 35.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…31e9backed Over | 60c | 33.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…768ebacked Under | 44c | 26.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…2d57backed Under | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 114 | 61.4%70 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Barracas Central: O/U 1.5this page
- AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Barracas Central: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Barracas Central: O/U 2.5Under won
- AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Barracas Central: O/U 3.5Under won
- AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Barracas Central: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AA Argentinos Juniors (-1.5)CA Barracas Central won
- Spread: CA Barracas Central (-1.5)AA Argentinos Juniors won
- Spread: CA Barracas Central (-2.5)AA Argentinos Juniors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.