South American Leagues · resolved market
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3fcb3c9dd1bfebd83b8ab66d9083ba18f166362271fc4e5054a1720382f648c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x916f…53babacked Over | 49c | 22,892$11,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,216.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12c…f2d4backed Under | 53c | 9,849$5,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,658.41 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Under | 51c | 9,804$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,803.92 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 6,441$2,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,992.11 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…40d5backed Under | 51c | 5,882$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,882.35 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked Under | 51c | 5,681$2,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,783.69 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 3,043$1,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450.89 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 51c | 1,224$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.76 | 233 | 54.9%128 W · 105 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4469backed Over | 49c | 1,162$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.55 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 35c | 516.84$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.17 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 51c | 399.9$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.95 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Under | 38c | 395.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.89 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 48c | 395.42$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.99 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 331.07$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.23 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Under | 52c | 269.23$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.23 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 62c | 241.94$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 166 | 56%93 W · 73 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb629…407abacked Over | 50c | 184$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b74…26d4backed Over | 48c | 173$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 48c | 133.94$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.29 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…6adbbacked Under | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…2392backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0da3…1b45backed Under | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +5.8wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…0f10backed Under | 52c | 72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a4…9196backed Under | 52c | 63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6083…d92dbacked Under | 52c | 59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 69c | 58.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 53c | 57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 235 | 42.1%99 W · 136 L | -13.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 51c | 51.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…8ee7backed Over | 49c | 51.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…bbcebacked Over | 49c | 51.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 48c | 50.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 270 | 31.5%85 W · 185 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x546e…ec0cbacked Over | 51c | 40.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…0452backed Under | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 71c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9e…95c3backed Under | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e4…eee9backed Over | 58c | 33.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…22efbacked Over | 50c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…d4edbacked Under | 52c | 30.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…6e86backed Under | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa26…6e40backed Under | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…2d57backed Over | 55c | 23.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 114 | 61.4%70 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…9820backed Under | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 51c | 20.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9279…ed18backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Over | 79c | 18.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 77c | 16.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 2.5this page
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. CD Guadalajara: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 1.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 3.5Under won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CD Guadalajara (-2.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.