NHL · resolved market
Spread: Sabres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc43b2d105054a281df523104fa8df8348c82e445df6422b33992edd8556bc84c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabresof Sabres, Blackhawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Sabres | 40c | 1,082$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.2 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Blackhawks | 60c | 938.8$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.28 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Blackhawks | 58c | 423.79$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.52 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf01…0f44backed Sabres | 42c | 398.81$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.31 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Sabres | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Sabres | 39c | 191.24$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.54 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e42…ca63backed Blackhawks | 61c | 168.88$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Blackhawks | 62c | 145.02$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.91 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Blackhawks | 60c | 138.2$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.43 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Sabres | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Sabres | 42c | 66.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 799 | 56.1%448 W · 351 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06eb…1a5fbacked Blackhawks | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Blackhawks | 60c | 61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b6…27ddbacked Sabres | 76c | 57.9$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Blackhawks | 58c | 51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Sabres | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 309 | 52.4%162 W · 147 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Blackhawks | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Blackhawks | 24c | 48.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +13.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Blackhawks | 60c | 43.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -6.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Blackhawks | 52c | 42.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 113 | 53.1%60 W · 53 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Blackhawks | 59c | 34.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…e19fbacked Sabres | 41c | 34.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked Sabres | 40c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)this page
- Blackhawks vs. SabresSabres won
- Blackhawks vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.