NHL · resolved market
Blackhawks vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb74278e1263945a4a2dddb6efee7b9ca94f47485d0c0c219c65f9261febb2b96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Over | 48c | 62,450$30,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,177.93 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 53c | 9,103$4,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,824.59 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 51c | 8,500$4,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,335 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under | 53c | 7,075$3,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,750 | 168 | 43.5%73 W · 95 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 51c | 6,000$3,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,060 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Under | 51c | 4,080$2,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080.8 | 201 | 47.8%96 W · 105 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 51c | 3,333$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,699.83 | 225 | 46.2%104 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 1,597$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.14 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 51c | 1,448$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.71 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 51c | 730.34$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.09 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4794…d6e5backed Under | 54c | 694.44$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b1…a7b6backed Under | 53c | 669.81$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x669c…6c54backed Over | 48c | 666.67$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.67 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +7.2wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 48c | 574$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.48 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Over | 49c | 482.08$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.67 | 490 | 53.7%263 W · 227 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 52c | 444$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.88 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 50c | 405$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.5 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Under | 52c | 399.99$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Over | 48c | 380.91$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.07 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e93…e4f7backed Under | 54c | 308.35$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.51 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 51c | 215.69$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 47c | 199.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 384 | 45.8%176 W · 208 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 53c | 199.19$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 366 | 52.7%193 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…90c6backed Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Over | 49c | 159.18$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.18 | 113 | 54%61 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 198 | 44.4%88 W · 110 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | +10.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 49c | 61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 232 | 49.1%114 W · 118 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 48c | 59.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 51c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda7a…d321backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 255 | 50.2%128 W · 127 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b2…47f7backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d27…d430backed Over | 49c | 40.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…93d9backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Under | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 178 | 45.5%81 W · 97 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Blackhawks vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5this page
- Blackhawks vs. SabresSabres won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Sabres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.