Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-01-31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4559fc7be760cf60add3f049a398914c73289ae4771c6fc4aee2ea3d8fd30fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x274f…fbf4backed No | 78c | 6,358$4,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,387.96 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Yes | 21c | 6,000$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 78c | 2,564$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.08 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 6c | 2,362$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.31 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…a5f0backed Yes | 18c | 1,191$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc8…a613backed Yes | 13c | 906.98$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 12c | 790$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.66 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 78c | 415.86$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.49 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 21c | 315.96$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.91 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked Yes | 21c | 235.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed No | 78c | 227.27$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 78c | 212.99$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 15c | 206.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 87 | 29.9%26 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 11c | 191.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 202 | 32.7%66 W · 136 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 79c | 154.99$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…5f1dbacked Yes | 14c | 140.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 79c | 130$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 240 | 44.2%106 W · 134 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Yes | 21c | 127.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 299 | 49.8%149 W · 150 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…cfcfbacked Yes | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa08a…48afbacked No | 79c | 102.58$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…13eebacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 46 | 76.1%35 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked No | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a88…832dbacked No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 78c | 74.28$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 204 | 54.4%111 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299a…6114backed Yes | 22c | 64.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ae…78b3backed Yes | 22c | 60.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Yes | 20c | 59.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbd…eeabbacked Yes | 22c | 54.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 56cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x030b…4035backed Yes | 22c | 54.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…42e7backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed No | 79c | 43.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 78c | 37.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…33d5backed No | 78c | 25.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc40d…4813backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…480dbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 97 | 67%65 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…47fabacked No | 78c | 20.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 94 | 67%63 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb93b…52f5backed No | 79c | 18.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.20per pick | 61cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…a0d0backed No | 80c | 18.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa038…6201backed No | 80c | 17.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…c03dbacked No | 79c | 16.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1f…2130backed No | 79c | 16.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaff…e10fbacked No | 79c | 15.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cd…6307backed No | 80c | 15.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff7…8e6dbacked No | 80c | 15.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 77cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5946…027bbacked No | 80c | 15.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x752f…a33cbacked No | 79c | 13.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1993…2262backed No | 80c | 13.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.64 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…2be6backed No | 80c | 13.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.62 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4678…ef7fbacked No | 79c | 12.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.69 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x277b…2baabacked No | 79c | 12.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.67 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Nantes win on 2026-01-31?this page
- Will FC Lorient vs. FC Nantes end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Lorient win on 2026-01-31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.