Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Lorient vs. FC Nantes end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00f6719bf20cdcfbb36f96ec24f1fecab03de4b4467d3b205caa5879a2ef3707
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c8e…c91bbacked Yes | 74c | 25,985$19,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,110.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 48c | 12,966$6,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,681.26 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 37c | 11,152$4,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,987.39 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…7d67backed No | 73c | 10,844$7,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,927.88 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed07…886abacked No | 71c | 8,000$5,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,320 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 27c | 5,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Yes | 2c | 3,404$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 27c | 2,884$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.6 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 62c | 1,548$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.42 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…7007backed Yes | 80c | 1,502$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 22c | 969$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.82 | 266 | 60.5%161 W · 105 L | +25.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 22c | 688.86$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.46 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 32c | 623.71$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.97 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked No | 22c | 584.6$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.99 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +7.5wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 27c | 524$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.48 | 170 | 43.5%74 W · 96 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes | 79c | 433.68$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.79 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed No | 73c | 410.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 24c | 405.98$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.74 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 28c | 354.95$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.39 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 27c | 247.96$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.95 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 25c | 234.09$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 263 | 46.4%122 W · 141 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 75c | 219.49$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 80 | 66.3%53 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Yes | 27c | 208.85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 299 | 49.8%149 W · 150 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 13c | 188.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 87 | 29.9%26 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3b…f1c5backed Yes | 21c | 145.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…cfcfbacked Yes | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…621fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3c…615dbacked Yes | 75c | 74.31$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 27c | 74.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 73c | 73.68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e2…89a5backed No | 70c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dce…b663backed No | 66c | 56.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b9…9613backed Yes | 79c | 45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 70cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 55c | 42.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes | 71c | 41.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 74c | 40.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…db4abacked No | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…e894backed No | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 57c | 23.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95ad…4eebbacked Yes | 67c | 22.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 66cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4af8…f1fdbacked Yes | 69c | 21.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6b…f532backed Yes | 67c | 20.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…150dbacked Yes | 66c | 19.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a9f7backed No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5af1…f988backed No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed No | 74c | 13.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Lorient vs. FC Nantes end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Lorient win on 2026-01-31?Yes won
- Will FC Nantes win on 2026-01-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.