Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4560bb78ae25ff4643f56a4d255dab9ba0dc1763b06c000b1fff3d12edbae7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Muchovaof Muchova, Eala
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,641 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa1b3…0329backed Eala | 15c | 4,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 104 | 40.4%42 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Eala | 0c | 3,692$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Eala | 10c | 511.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Muchova | 58c | 511$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.62 | 239 | 45.6%109 W · 130 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Eala | 42c | 238.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 848 | 57.4%487 W · 361 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f15…650dbacked Eala | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 157 | 62.4%98 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…61b4backed Eala | 50c | 201.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 374 | 44.1%165 W · 209 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Muchova | 60c | 171.06$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.92 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Eala | 39c | 134.44$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11c…c7f7backed Muchova | 61c | 114.44$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ec…ab04backed Eala | 47c | 105.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Muchova | 52c | 73.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Eala | 42c | 68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…facabacked Eala | 45c | 58.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0b…4db0backed Eala | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Muchova | 55c | 56.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Muchova | 59c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -6.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Muchova | 61c | 33.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 233 | 53.2%124 W · 109 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11f1…9adfbacked Muchova | 60c | 32.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Eala | 41c | 31.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 619 | 53.3%330 W · 289 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba8…90a3backed Eala | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 488 | 52.9%258 W · 230 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Muchova | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…17ccbacked Muchova | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.7wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdff6…0918backed Muchova | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 498 | 57%284 W · 214 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5)this page
- Karolina Muchova vs. Alexandra Eala: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Miami Open: Karolina Muchova vs Alexandra EalaKarolina Muchova won
- Muchova vs. Eala: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Muchova vs EalaMuchova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.