Asian League · resolved market
Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-03-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4ee8c1a01b5e7ecb139bf718360d9915f47b4338ee8c1da7fd766efede0b539
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,354 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 77c | 4,697$3,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,618.15 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 25c | 3,511$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,633.21 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 36c | 1,241$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.4 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked No | 36c | 527.78$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 64c | 263.38$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.01 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…0905backed No | 40c | 252.38$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.95 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 77c | 248.45$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.09 | 626 | 52.6%329 W · 297 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Yes | 25c | 239.88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.37 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 21c | 202.84$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.67 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.36 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed No | 14c | 125.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…8ba9backed No | 71c | 112.68$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.89 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 67c | 87.88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 82.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 27c | 66.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 721 | 44.1%318 W · 403 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 35c | 65.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 194 | 36.6%71 W · 123 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +42%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 23c | 56.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 141 | 53.2%75 W · 66 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Yes | 34c | 48.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 34c | 33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 531 | 48.8%259 W · 272 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +11.0wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cd…e98dbacked No | 77c | 23.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…6cecbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-03-22?this page
- Will Urawa Red Diamonds vs. FC Machida Zelvia end in a draw?No won
- Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-03-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.