Australian A League · resolved market
Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2026-01-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4fd69bb88025c8715f6d952fca5de371fffd476728da991c5fa245a6ea1f8ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 9c | 1,068$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.39 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a0…05c4backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 20c | 926.55$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.15 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 16c | 873.24$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.1 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Yes | 20c | 750.25$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 17c | 700$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 5c | 645$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 18c | 630$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.94 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked No | 76c | 477.35$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 14c | 431.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 80c | 310.54$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.11 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 20c | 272.55$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…4432backed Yes | 19c | 210$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.47per pick | 33cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbb…92efbacked Yes | 22c | 199.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6310…0d90backed No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked No | 79c | 125$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3bc…4c8cbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…ee8ebacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Yes | 17c | 67.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd931…ae99backed Yes | 23c | 64.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed No | 80c | 54.83$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd35…ecebbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 48.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ff…d3fcbacked No | 78c | 18.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…2a6fbacked No | 78c | 15.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…8563backed No | 78c | 15.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb252…121fbacked No | 78c | 13.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 79c | 13.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.76 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2026-01-10?this page
- Will Perth Glory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Perth Glory FC win on 2026-01-10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.