CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Brute - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5332d1607660e24124f57033f10be55d625edfa5a9970ce912e2a7c6595d153
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ursaof Ursa, Brute
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x18bb…e5cdbacked Brute | 21c | 8,907$1,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,898.18 | 307 | 26.4%81 W · 226 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ursa | 74c | 2,044$1,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.73 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Ursa | 73c | 1,152$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.68 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Ursa | 78c | 591.45$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.12 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Brute | 33c | 450.75$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.75 | 512 | 52.3%268 W · 244 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…a9b3backed Ursa | 67c | 441.7$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.72 | 1,163 | 54.3%631 W · 532 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Ursa | 71c | 405.7$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.94 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddad…bce1backed Brute | 40c | 315.43$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.3 | 222 | 52.7%117 W · 105 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…3b7dbacked Ursa | 80c | 280$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 318 | 52.8%168 W · 150 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Brute | 27c | 264.59$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Ursa | 77c | 202.21$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 447 | 48.1%215 W · 232 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dea…e294backed Ursa | 38c | 158.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.05 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…3a39backed Ursa | 73c | 106.02$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Ursa | 63c | 94.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Ursa | 77c | 74.84$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Ursa | 66c | 73.47$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 300 | 31.7%95 W · 205 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed Brute | 34c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 424 | 27.1%115 W · 309 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93af…32abbacked Brute | 41c | 41.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Brute | 38c | 32.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Ursa | 62c | 25.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 719 | 51%367 W · 352 L | +28.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…d72abacked Ursa | 68c | 25.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 265 | 46.8%124 W · 141 L | -18.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Ursa | 70c | 20.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 445 | 63.8%284 W · 161 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Brute - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #1 Play-In Group AUrsa won
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Brute - Map 2 WinnerBrute won
- Map Handicap: URSA (-1.5) vs Brute (+1.5)Brute won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.