Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc585754310faaeeee861ef60a9f11a68f0d3ce498f7dab595c1078a7a0fcd019
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 54c | 548.52$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.96 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 44c | 423.67$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.24 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 370.48$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 59c | 326.99$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.69 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 61c | 278.78$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.22 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 263.13$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…31b5backed No | 39c | 257.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 11c | 251.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 15c | 245.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 40c | 221.06$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.84 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 189$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 74c | 172$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 38c | 170.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 67c | 170$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.57 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 28c | 159.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 57c | 149$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.66 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…9d1bbacked Yes | 60c | 148$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 46c | 128.69$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 16c | 117.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.79 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 50c | 114$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.93 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 25c | 111$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 28c | 107.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.98 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 54c | 102$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 27c | 101.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff6…4cb5backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 11c | 95.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 54c | 90$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 55c | 78.56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 66c | 76.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…2d49backed No | 20c | 75.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…e184backed Yes | 51c | 74.14$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 36c | 69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 45c | 66.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 56.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 31c | 55.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 54.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 55c | 51.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd9…3c35backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…96d5backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 48.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 37c | 45.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 34c | 38.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed No | 57c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 34.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 39c | 32.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 55c | 31.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 26.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…7980backed No | 66c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 64c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…0e6dbacked No | 65c | 21.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 68c | 21.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed Yes | 57c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 80c | 12.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.